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solution, and the way forward is clear: Adaptation and
Resilience. Adaptation: our response to the stresses
climate change places upon us, the means by which we
reduce our vulnerability.
Resilience: the ability of our socio-ecological system to
absorb the stresses, to reorganise, evolve and improve
our sustainability.
predicted to be 3-10°C. But taken on its own, that fact
may be the least of our worries. Consequential impacts
are more worrying, including sea level rise, (currently put
at 0.1 to 0.8 m), changes in precipitation, (hence changes
to flood patterns and agriculture), reductions in the ozone
layer, the lowering of ocean pH, changing fish stocks,
coral reefs and shellfish beds, and, finally, the spread
dengue fever.
changes in average climatic conditions. Rather, it is
our understanding of extremes, of variability and of the
rates of change. The ability of human socio-ecological
systems to adapt depends upon a range of issues:
wealth, technology, education, infrastructure, access
to resources, institutional management capability,
acceptance of the need for action, and socio-political
will.
and natural resources, the poorest education and health,
and least political resolve, will inevitably have the least
capacity to adapt, and hence little resilience.
change. As a result, governments are increasingly
following the lead of the private sector. Instead of
dwelling on the threats of climate change, they are
coming to recognise the opportunities to create
a cleaner, more sustainable future. And those
opportunities are socio-political as well as commercial.