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Developing a bespoke model of the UK's oil
consumption
To undertake the assessment, IPA developed
a bespoke model of the UK's oil consumption,
production and imports up to 2030, to forecast
future stockholding requirements.
The model was also designed to calculate the
necessary individual obligations on market
participants in order to meet the national aggregate
obligation over the period to 2030, and assess the
cost of meeting the obligation under different UK
continental shelf production, declining refinery
throughput and CSO policy sensitivities. IPA also
undertook a cost assessment in order to assess the
economic strengths and weaknesses of each policy
sensitivity.
Holding stakeholder meetings
IPA held stakeholder meetings with the trade
associations the UK Petroleum Industry Association
(UKPIA) and the Downstream Fuel Association (DFA)
in order to discuss and understand their views on
the current stockholding arrangements and their
approach to meeting any changes to the stockholding
differential and obligation.
Drafting an independent policy paper
IPA provided policy recommendations based on the
assessment, and delivered a user-friendly model
encapsulating all of the analysis with flexibility for
additional sensitivities, to be updated with the latest
market data and trends. Based on the findings, IPA
drafted an independent policy paper for DECC which:
i.
Determined the ability of the current level of
individual CSOs on market participants to meet
national stockholding obligations up to 2030.
ii.
Assessed whether individual CSOs should be
changed as a result of changing market and
operating conditions.
iii.
Summarized views of the trade associations on
the current stockholding arrangements and the
industry's approach to meeting any changes to
stockholding differential and obligation.
iv.
Provided policy recommendations on what least
cost obligations should be imposed on market
participants to ensure that the UK is compliant
with its international obligations.
About IPA
IPA offers specialist skills in energy sector policy development and evaluation. IPA's specialist modelling skills
and simulation tools, complemented by our energy industry expertise, allows us to objectively analyze the
impacts of changing policy on market participants, consumers and the environment.
The British government's DECC published its consultation on the UK's Compulsory Stockholding Obligation (CSO) arrangements on
October 28, 2015, which referenced a report it had commissioned from IPA Advisory Limited (IPA). The UK is required to hold emergency
stocks of crude oil and petroleum products to release to market in the event of short term oil supply disruption to bridge a gap in
supply. The UK holds these stocks to comply with international requirements.
IPA was commissioned by DECC to produce an independent report assessing the level of the CSO arrangements that needed to be
imposed on refiners and importers to ensure the UK continued to meet its international oil stocking obligations.
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IPA report on UK's compulsory oil stocking